Sonnenseite Ergänzungen zur Vorlesung TWK an der TU-Berlin
Inst. f. Ökologie

Vegetationsökologie Tropischer & Subtropischer Klimate
von PD Dr. habil. H. Kehl  
sEp Die Debatte um den Klimawandel:
Bemerkung von Steve McIntyre zur Daten-Transparenz
in: "Comments: IPCC Hockey Stick Matters", leider nicht mehr online unter:
"As to the Mann data, it has not "always been available". Some information was available in 1998. Proxies and other info for MBH99 were available in 1999. In April 2003,the proxy data was not in the public section of Mann's FTP site (which itself started only in July 2002). When I inquired in April 2003, Rutherford said that there was no public location of the data and after a few weeks provided a URL in the /sdr/ directory, pointing to a file which had been archived in August 2002. There turned out to be problems with this dataset and after publication of our first article in Oct 2003, Mann placed the directory now labelled MBH98 in the public area of his FTP site in Nov 2003 and deleted the dataset in the /sdr/ directory previously referenced. The data as used in this new directory was inconsistent with the original SI in some respects and Nature required a Corrigendum which was published in July 2004. Unusually, Nature also required a complete new SI.

One of the reasons was that the number of PC series used could not be decoded from the Nov 2003 directory and was provided for the first time in the Corrigendum SI in July 2004 (which also provided the underlying temperature dataset no longer available from CRU). You remember the 159 series which Mann said were used in Nov 2003 - this could not be deduced from the Nov 2003 directories. Of course, this figure was also incorrect. It looks like the July 2004 dataset relates to the one originally used, although the source code posted up in connection with the Barton inquiry calls for datafiles that do not exist in any of the presently archived datafiles. While it is possible to approximately replicate MBH98 results (as both we and Wahl and Ammann have done - and our current emulations are almost identical), neither of us has been able to replicate MBH98 results exactly. This is aside from the inaccurate description of methodology in MBH98 - most notably the inaccurate description of principal components methodology which we have discussed elsewhere. But there are other oddities which one would never have guessed - such as arbitrary extensions of some series and truncations ofother series, and the use of obsolete and/or grey versions of other series. Residual series used for calculation of verification statistics remain unavailable to this day. So don't say that this has "always" been available.

As to other multiproxy studies: Crowley has "misplaced" his original data and was only able to locate a smoothed and transformed version of his data. He also could not recall where he got the digital versions of certain series, so this is problematic.

Briffa has never identified even the sites used in Briffa et al [2001]. Some of the data used in Esper et al. [2002] may be archived, but much isn't and it is impossible to verify versions. Most of Moberg's data is located in public archives, but some isn't and he has been unable or unwilling to provide the missing data. Some of the data used in Mann and Jones [2003] is not archived. Phil Jones says that he doesn't know the weights used in this study.

Posted by Steve McIntyre at November 20, 2005 07:15 PM" in Comments: IPCC Hockey Stick Matters (Seite nicht mehr aufrufbar)

  Weiterführende Links zum Thema "Global Warming" etc. innerhalb dieser Website ( nur kurze Hinweise!):
Das zyklische Auftreten von Kalt- und Warmzeiten im Laufe der Erdgeschichte.
Das zyklische Auftreten Warm- und Kaltzeiten (150 Mio. Zykluszeit / Eis-Zeitalter)
Das zyklische Auftreten Warm- und Kaltzeiten (125.000. Zykluszeit / Eiszeit-Zyklus)
Klimaschwankungen im Jungpleistozän und Holozän und Vegetationsgeschichte
Kurzer Überblick zur Klimageschichte
Literaturangaben zur Klimageschichte, kleine Auswahl
Globalklimatische Grundlagen und Entstehung von Vegetationszonen
Die glaziale und postglaziale Vegetationsgeschichte Afrikas
Postglaziale aride und humide Phasen in der Sahara Afrikas
Meeresspiegel während des LGM (120m unter NN) u. Simulation um +5m ü.NN
Glaziale bis postglaziale Nordseegeschichte
Entwicklung der Insel Sylt
Holozäne Optima und Pessima
2000 Jahre Temperaturentwicklung der nördlichen Hemisphäre, Bemerkungen zum "Hockeystick"
Sargasso Sea Surface Temperature (3000 BP - Present)
Der sogenannte Treibhauseffekt
Hurrikane haben nicht immer Saison
Elektromagnetisches Spektrum, Strahlungsenergie und Absorption
Die Bedeutung von Kohlendioxid
Der Kohlenstoffkreislauf - Ein kleiner Einblick
Das zyklische Auftreten von Sonnenzyklen
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Copyright © Harald Kehl
ehemals TU-Berlin - Institut für Ökologie
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